預測當下經(jīng)濟
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Forecasting the present 預測當下 Taking the economic pulse 把握經(jīng)濟脈動 How to gauge the current state of the economy 如何衡量當前經(jīng)濟狀態(tài) IT IS hard to predict the future: witnessforecasters failure to foresee the financial crisis.Indeed, even ascertaining the current state of the economy is tricky. The first officialestimates of quarterly GDP are generally published between four and six weeks after eachquarter has finished. Interpreting them can be fraught since they are frequently revised.Such delays and uncertainties have led economy-watchers to search for other gauges. 預測未來是困難的：你看看那些未能成功預見金融危機的預測機構就知道了。事實上，即使要確定經(jīng)濟的當前狀態(tài)也是棘手的。官方對季度GDP的估測一般是在每個季度結(jié)束后的4到6周方才公布。這些數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)常修訂，要對它們做出解釋實在挑戰(zhàn)重重。而發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)的拖延和不確定性也導致經(jīng)濟觀察家們轉(zhuǎn)而尋求其他的經(jīng)濟度量方式。 Simply asking business-folk what they think is a venerable traditionBritain s IndustrialTrends for example dates back to 1958but such surveys are flourishing as never before.Among the most influential are purchasing-manager indices. Every month managers in bothmanufacturing and private services are asked whether their firms output, employment,orders and the like have expanded or contracted. An index based on the net balance of theiranswers shows expansion above the level of 50 and contraction below it. 單刀直入問問商人們的想法是一個古老的傳統(tǒng)，這可以追溯到1958年時的英國產(chǎn)業(yè)動態(tài)但此類調(diào)查如今正經(jīng)歷前所未有的蓬勃發(fā)展。其中最有影響的是采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)。每個月，制造業(yè)和私人服務業(yè)的經(jīng)理們都會被問到他們公司的產(chǎn)出，就業(yè)，訂單量之類是否擴大或縮小。根據(jù)他們的答案得出一個凈差額指數(shù)，若指數(shù)高于50，則是經(jīng)濟擴張的訊號，若低于50，則表明經(jīng)濟緊縮。 These findings can in turn be used to estimate the current rate of growth, given theprevious relationship between the indices and GDP. For example, Markit, a research group,reported this week that their composite index for manufacturing and services in the euro zonestood at 52.8 in June. The survey suggests the euro area should grow by around 0.4% in thesecond quarter, twice as fast as in the first, says Chris Williamson, an economist at Markit. 基于這個指數(shù)以往與GDP之間的聯(lián)系，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)可以反過來用于估計目前的經(jīng)濟增長速度。舉個例子，根據(jù)研究小組麥蓋提本周的報告，6月份歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)和服務業(yè)的綜合指數(shù)為52.8。麥蓋提的經(jīng)濟學家克里斯威廉姆森說，本項調(diào)查顯示，歐元區(qū)第二季度經(jīng)濟增長率約為0.4%，是第一季度增速的兩倍。 Markit s estimate of second quarter euro-zone GDP growth appeared six weeks before thefirst official estimate. Such surveys have other benefits:the method is transparent and easyto grasp. And the findings are not revised once the final reports emerge a week after theflash estimates. 麥蓋提公布的有關第二季度歐元區(qū)GDP的增長估測比官方評估結(jié)果整整早了六周。而且這樣的調(diào)查還有其他好處：使用的方法完全透明且易于掌握。而且，一旦閃電估測一周后產(chǎn)生了最終報告，估測結(jié)果將不再進行修正。 Some data providers go further, seeking to exploit all relevant statistics, such as officialfigures for new passenger-car registrations. This requires a sophisticated model to extracta common signal for GDP from the welter of data that become available. This is theapproach adopted by Now-Casting Economics, a firm whose founders include twoeconomists, Lucrezia Reichlin and Domenico Giannone. In the case of the euro zone, theirmodel gobbles up 50 monthly variables and uses their past relationships with GDP tocalculate an estimate for the current quarter. At present the firm, whose clients are hedgefunds and other asset managers, is expecting growth of 0.26% in the secondquartersomewhat more sluggish than Markit s estimate. 有些數(shù)據(jù)供應商則走的更遠，尋求利用所有相關的統(tǒng)計信息，比如有關新型乘用車注冊的官方數(shù)字。這需要一個復雜的模型來從冗雜的數(shù)據(jù)中提取出有關GDP的通用信號。目前，短時預測經(jīng)濟公司正是采用這種方法，其創(chuàng)始人包括兩位經(jīng)濟學家，盧克雷西婭賴希林和多梅尼科詹諾內(nèi)。在歐元區(qū)范圍內(nèi)，他們使用模型抓取了50個月的變量，并利用其過去與GDP的聯(lián)系來計算、估測本季度的經(jīng)濟形式。該公司的客戶是對沖基金和其他資產(chǎn)管理公司，目前它預期二季度經(jīng)濟增長率為0.26%，略低于麥蓋提公布的估測數(shù)據(jù)。 In principle, the model-based approach might appear superior because it exploits moreinformation. On the other hand, it is more of a black box. Since surveys are themselves animportant source of information for the nowcasts this suggests that the two methods willco-exist. 原則上而言，因為基于模型的統(tǒng)計方式利用到更多的信息，可能會比普通方法更勝一籌。然而另一方面，它更多的是一個黑盒測試。由于調(diào)查本身也是短時預測信息的重要來源，這兩種調(diào)查方式將會共存。 詞語解釋 1.search for 搜索，搜尋 Microsoft disclosed its search for a new leader onfriday. 周五，微軟宣布正在尋找新的領導者。 How does getty survive when anyone can just usegoogle to search for, and steal, digital images? 然而現(xiàn)在，誰都可以用谷歌搜索、盜用數(shù)字圖像，Getty如何如何生存? 2.date back to 追溯到 For a start, they date back to 1947. 首先，這些規(guī)定要追溯至1947年。 The arrangement will allow google to index and produce links to texts which date back tothe 18th century. 該項協(xié)議將使google公司可以對這些最早能到18世紀的文獻建立索引和鏈接。 3.base on 建立在基礎上 Russia supplies arms and is building a naval base on syria s coast. 俄向敘提供武器，并正在敘沿海某處修建海軍基地。 Left: lance cpl. baker at shir ghazay patrol base on jan. 30. 左圖:貝克爾下士在shir ghazay巡邏基地，1月30日。 4.seek to 設法;企圖，試圖 Is it something that you seek to do? 這是不是你尋求做的事情? It doesn t say: we seek to beat analysts expectations every quarter. 上面并沒有說：我們致力于每個季度都超出分析師們的預期。
2023復習正是強化復習階段，在考研英語中占了40分，所以考研英語閱讀是英語科目中重要的一項。名師老師曾建議過考研生需要堅持每天泛讀10-15分鐘的英文原刊。強烈推薦了雜志《經(jīng)濟學人》.雜志中的文章也是考研英語的主要材料來源.希望考研考生認真閱讀，快速提高考研英語閱讀水平。 Forecasting the present 預測當下 Taking the economic pulse 把握經(jīng)濟脈動 How to gauge the current state of the economy 如何衡量當前經(jīng)濟狀態(tài) IT IS hard to predict the future: witnessforecasters failure to foresee the financial crisis.Indeed, even ascertaining the current state of the economy is tricky. The first officialestimates of quarterly GDP are generally published between four and six weeks after eachquarter has finished. Interpreting them can be fraught since they are frequently revised.Such delays and uncertainties have led economy-watchers to search for other gauges. 預測未來是困難的：你看看那些未能成功預見金融危機的預測機構就知道了。事實上，即使要確定經(jīng)濟的當前狀態(tài)也是棘手的。官方對季度GDP的估測一般是在每個季度結(jié)束后的4到6周方才公布。這些數(shù)據(jù)經(jīng)常修訂，要對它們做出解釋實在挑戰(zhàn)重重。而發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)的拖延和不確定性也導致經(jīng)濟觀察家們轉(zhuǎn)而尋求其他的經(jīng)濟度量方式。 Simply asking business-folk what they think is a venerable traditionBritain s IndustrialTrends for example dates back to 1958but such surveys are flourishing as never before.Among the most influential are purchasing-manager indices. Every month managers in bothmanufacturing and private services are asked whether their firms output, employment,orders and the like have expanded or contracted. An index based on the net balance of theiranswers shows expansion above the level of 50 and contraction below it. 單刀直入問問商人們的想法是一個古老的傳統(tǒng)，這可以追溯到1958年時的英國產(chǎn)業(yè)動態(tài)但此類調(diào)查如今正經(jīng)歷前所未有的蓬勃發(fā)展。其中最有影響的是采購經(jīng)理人指數(shù)。每個月，制造業(yè)和私人服務業(yè)的經(jīng)理們都會被問到他們公司的產(chǎn)出，就業(yè)，訂單量之類是否擴大或縮小。根據(jù)他們的答案得出一個凈差額指數(shù)，若指數(shù)高于50，則是經(jīng)濟擴張的訊號，若低于50，則表明經(jīng)濟緊縮。 These findings can in turn be used to estimate the current rate of growth, given theprevious relationship between the indices and GDP. For example, Markit, a research group,reported this week that their composite index for manufacturing and services in the euro zonestood at 52.8 in June. The survey suggests the euro area should grow by around 0.4% in thesecond quarter, twice as fast as in the first, says Chris Williamson, an economist at Markit. 基于這個指數(shù)以往與GDP之間的聯(lián)系，這些發(fā)現(xiàn)可以反過來用于估計目前的經(jīng)濟增長速度。舉個例子，根據(jù)研究小組麥蓋提本周的報告，6月份歐元區(qū)制造業(yè)和服務業(yè)的綜合指數(shù)為52.8。麥蓋提的經(jīng)濟學家克里斯威廉姆森說，本項調(diào)查顯示，歐元區(qū)第二季度經(jīng)濟增長率約為0.4%，是第一季度增速的兩倍。 Markit s estimate of second quarter euro-zone GDP growth appeared six weeks before thefirst official estimate. Such surveys have other benefits:the method is transparent and easyto grasp. And the findings are not revised once the final reports emerge a week after theflash estimates. 麥蓋提公布的有關第二季度歐元區(qū)GDP的增長估測比官方評估結(jié)果整整早了六周。而且這樣的調(diào)查還有其他好處：使用的方法完全透明且易于掌握。而且，一旦閃電估測一周后產(chǎn)生了最終報告，估測結(jié)果將不再進行修正。 Some data providers go further, seeking to exploit all relevant statistics, such as officialfigures for new passenger-car registrations. This requires a sophisticated model to extracta common signal for GDP from the welter of data that become available. This is theapproach adopted by Now-Casting Economics, a firm whose founders include twoeconomists, Lucrezia Reichlin and Domenico Giannone. In the case of the euro zone, theirmodel gobbles up 50 monthly variables and uses their past relationships with GDP tocalculate an estimate for the current quarter. At present the firm, whose clients are hedgefunds and other asset managers, is expecting growth of 0.26% in the secondquartersomewhat more sluggish than Markit s estimate. 有些數(shù)據(jù)供應商則走的更遠，尋求利用所有相關的統(tǒng)計信息，比如有關新型乘用車注冊的官方數(shù)字。這需要一個復雜的模型來從冗雜的數(shù)據(jù)中提取出有關GDP的通用信號。目前，短時預測經(jīng)濟公司正是采用這種方法，其創(chuàng)始人包括兩位經(jīng)濟學家，盧克雷西婭賴希林和多梅尼科詹諾內(nèi)。在歐元區(qū)范圍內(nèi)，他們使用模型抓取了50個月的變量，并利用其過去與GDP的聯(lián)系來計算、估測本季度的經(jīng)濟形式。該公司的客戶是對沖基金和其他資產(chǎn)管理公司，目前它預期二季度經(jīng)濟增長率為0.26%，略低于麥蓋提公布的估測數(shù)據(jù)。 In principle, the model-based approach might appear superior because it exploits moreinformation. On the other hand, it is more of a black box. Since surveys are themselves animportant source of information for the nowcasts this suggests that the two methods willco-exist. 原則上而言，因為基于模型的統(tǒng)計方式利用到更多的信息，可能會比普通方法更勝一籌。然而另一方面，它更多的是一個黑盒測試。由于調(diào)查本身也是短時預測信息的重要來源，這兩種調(diào)查方式將會共存。 詞語解釋 1.search for 搜索，搜尋 Microsoft disclosed its search for a new leader onfriday. 周五，微軟宣布正在尋找新的領導者。 How does getty survive when anyone can just usegoogle to search for, and steal, digital images? 然而現(xiàn)在，誰都可以用谷歌搜索、盜用數(shù)字圖像，Getty如何如何生存? 2.date back to 追溯到 For a start, they date back to 1947. 首先，這些規(guī)定要追溯至1947年。 The arrangement will allow google to index and produce links to texts which date back tothe 18th century. 該項協(xié)議將使google公司可以對這些最早能到18世紀的文獻建立索引和鏈接。 3.base on 建立在基礎上 Russia supplies arms and is building a naval base on syria s coast. 俄向敘提供武器，并正在敘沿海某處修建海軍基地。 Left: lance cpl. baker at shir ghazay patrol base on jan. 30. 左圖:貝克爾下士在shir ghazay巡邏基地，1月30日。 4.seek to 設法;企圖，試圖 Is it something that you seek to do? 這是不是你尋求做的事情? It doesn t say: we seek to beat analysts expectations every quarter. 上面并沒有說：我們致力于每個季度都超出分析師們的預期。
